Shared from the 5/6/2019 San Antonio Express eEdition

VOTE 2019

Campaigns to kick into high gear for runoff

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Jerry Lara / Staff photographer

Councilman Greg Brockhouse and his wife, Annalisa, have lunch with family, including sons Edward, left, and David, at The Rustic in the Rim shopping center a day after the election.

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Carlos Javier Sanchez / Contributor

Mayor Ron Nirenberg speaks with a supporter at the Tip Top restaurant a day after his bid for re-election was sent to a runoff against Councilman Greg Brockhouse set for June 8.

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Billy Calzada / Staff photographer

Councilman Greg Brockhouse, with his wife, Annalisa, on Saturday, took nearly 46 percent of the vote.

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Tom Reel / Staff photographer

Mayor Ron Nirenberg, shown Saturday with his son, Jonah, got nearly 49 percent of the vote.

San Antonio’s two mayoral contenders retreated to their corners Sunday to regroup after an unusually close election and grueling campaign that promises to grow in intensity until they face each other again in the runoff.

Just 3 percentage points separated Mayor Ron Nirenberg

(48.66 percent) and challenger Greg Brockhouse (45.57) in Saturday’s municipal race. Because neither commanded the majority needed to win, they are headed for the June 8 runoff.

The mayor joked that he “slept in” until 7 a.m. Sunday before meeting with advisers and having a leisurely lunch with his family.

Brockhouse did much of the same.

“Just kind of relaxing, decompressing more than anything,” the councilman said.

For both men, the break won’t last long. Campaign veterans in San Antonio say they are bound for another bitterly fought contest, especially given the close nature of the race.

While both have cause for optimism after Saturday night, the result was unquestionably good for Brockhouse, who has claimed “the momentum is all with us.”

“I think it’s a toss-up that now leans Brockhouse,” said Christian Archer, who ran mayoral campaigns for Phil Hardberger, Julián Castro and Leticia Van de Putte. Archer sat out this election.

In each of San Antonio’s past three mayoral runoffs, the candidate trailing after the first round reversed the outcome in the contest. That includes the race in 2017, when Nirenberg — as a challenger — forced Mayor Ivy Taylor into an extra round.

Nirenberg trailed by 5 percentage points in that contest, but Taylor’s low level of support — 42 percent — was an indication that she was in trouble. Nirenberg ended up with a relatively comfortable 55-45 win one month later.

Two years earlier, Taylor overcame a deficit of 2 percentage points to beat Van de Putte in a runoff.

In 2005, Hardberger came back from 12 points down to defeat then-Councilman Castro.

Brockhouse hopes to pull off a similar turnabout June 8.

“History shows that’s the usual path,” Brockhouse said. “Get him into a runoff, start a new campaign and make it happen.”

The mayor is hoping to buck that trend and is confident, at least outwardly, that he will. He enters the next stage in a stronger position than Taylor was in 2017. His 48.66 percent of the vote was just shy of the majority needed to win.

“We don’t go into the runoff from a position of weakness,” he argued. “We won the early vote, we won election day and we’re going to win June 8.”

That makes for what will likely become a down-to-the-wire contest over the next five weeks.

“The standard is that when an incumbent enters a runoff, it tends to favor the challenger,” said Laura Barberena, a veteran Democratic campaign operative in San Antonio who worked on three successful council races this year. “But in this case, because (Nirenberg) had a strong showing, it evens the playing field. I do think it’s anybody’s ballgame.”

As consultants mine voting data for more information over the next few days, the two sides will analyze the results and try to identify their supporters. Once that’s done, most of the campaigns’ work is about ensuring that those voters return to the polls.

They’ll especially be targeting the North Side, which traditionally turns out in greater numbers during city elections. Voters in the East Side’s District 2, part of the West Side in District 6, which Brockhouse represents, and the Southwest Side in District 4 will also have greater incentive to vote because there are council runoffs in those districts.

“At the end of the day, this now turns into … a get-out-the-vote battle,” Brock-house said at his election party Saturday night. “Getting people back into it, getting them engaged and making sure they come back out again. It’s a tough one.”

Nirenberg said his strategy is about “energizing the electorate about the broader goals we’re working towards.”

The mayor has campaigned on his vision to guide San Antonio into the future, which includes far-reaching master plans to tackle mass transit, climate change and affordable housing, among other issues.

Barberena said both candidates have advantages that seemingly cancel each other out. Nirenberg has the experience and infrastructure of past runoff campaigns, especially his 2017 victory to become mayor.

“We know Nirenberg has a ground game because he’s done it before,” she said. “We don’t know if Greg has one.”

But Brockhouse, who also won a runoff to join the council in 2017, has the support of the police and firefighters unions, which can help provide some of the infrastructure he’s lacking. And more importantly, Barberena said, he has the momentum.

“The question is, can he sustain that momentum,” Barberena said.

San Antonio has had higher turnout in recent municipal runoffs than in general elections, which means the two sides will be able to pursue new voters.

For that reason, Nirenberg’s camp might explore adjusting its message. In recent weeks, as the race tightened, the campaign went after Brockhouse for police reports from 2006 and 2009 in which an ex-wife and his current wife accused him of domestic violence. Brockhouse wasn’t arrested in either incident and has denied wrongdoing.

The mayor’s campaign launched a website called NotFitForMayor.com and ran advertisements targeting that personal history. That could continue and perhaps intensify.

And Nirenberg will likely continue to emphasize the close relationship between Brockhouse and the police and fire unions, which could help the mayor shore up support among the business community. Before Brockhouse joined the council, he was a political consultant for the unions, which have feuded with the city for years.

Brockhouse, on the other hand, will try to maintain the message he’s trumpeted over the past few months, which evidently gained traction with many voters. He has pledged a back-to-basics municipal government focused on property tax relief, public safety and transparency in government.

He has also blasted Nirenberg's leadership, a message aided by some of the mayor’s missteps. Notably, that included the council’s decision to remove Chick-fil-A from an airport concessions contract on grounds that the fast-food chain’s management has been hostile to LGBTQ rights.

The vote energized conservatives and religious leaders who viewed it as an infringement on religious freedom. Brockhouse used the controversy to draw a distinct contrast between himself and the mayor, apologizing to Chick-Fil-A and trying to force a second council vote on the matter.

The effort to overturn the vote failed, but Brock-house succeeded in changing the subject from domestic violence and in putting Nirenberg on the defensive. The mayor voted with the council majority to exclude Chick-fil-A.

In candidate debates, Brockhouse cited the vote to reinforce his argument that Nirenberg, who dismissed the issue as a “fast-food subcontract,” was out of touch with San Antoni-ans and the issues that matter to them.

The issue gave Brock-house momentum in forcing a runoff.

Now, the campaign starts anew.

“We start at zero,” Barberena said. “All the voters have to come out again on both sides.” dylan.mcguinness

@express-news.net

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