Shared from the 11/8/2020 LUBBOCK AVALANCHE-JOURNAL eEdition

No blue wave here: Lubbock, South Plains stay very red

The 2020 Elections proved Lubbock remains a solidly Republican county, and high turnout across all of rural Texas helped keep the state red once again.

Lubbock County's 78,560 votes for President Donald Trump were the most votes for any presidential candidate since at least 2000, the furthest back the archives on the county's election show. The closest was in 2004 when 70,135 votes were cast for President George W. Bush's re-election.

In 2004, U.S. Rep. Randy Neugebauer ran for his first full term against Democrat U.S. Rep. Charles Stenholm of Abilene after the district lines were redrawn, which contributed to the high turnout.

The 38,803 net votes Trump received in Lubbock County this year was the second highest vote margin for the president in Texas' 20 most populated counties. The only other county on that list to vote for Trump by a wider margin was Montgomery County just north of Houston, where Trump won by 118,969 votes.

All of the South Plains and the Panhandle voted overwhelmingly Republican.

In the Panhandle counties, from Swisher up to Sherman County, 80.26% of the votes went to Trump. Of the 156,920 votes, 125,944 were for the Republican President.

Some counties voted more than 90% in favor of Trump. Roberts County had the highest percentage, with 96% of the 546 presidential votes for Trump. The lowest percentage was in Potter County, which includes most of Amarillo, where 68.4% of the votes were Republican.

Results are similar across the South Plains. In the 18 counties south of the Panhandle, 70% of the votes went to Donald Trump.

In these two regions of West Texas, Trump won by a total of 159,163 votes.

"Rural areas are overwhelmingly Republican, and that's why when we look at the county-level maps it's mostly red," said Dr. Timothy Nokken, associate professor and chairman of the Department of Political Science at Texas Tech. "Lubbock is still a rural area... There's still a lot of Republican voters out here."

Nokken spoke with the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal in 2018 after the midterm elections, and the conversation then was very similar to the one now — rural and suburban voters are still in the driver's seat in Texas. It may be becoming less so, but Nokken doesn't see Texas as a swing state until the large urban cities start consistently voting in higher rates.

Nokken said what you're seeing in Texas isn't different than what you're seeing in other parts of the country, which is a split between rural/urban voters. He's said those splits are becoming more severe, and he said that's probably not a good thing for the country.

What’s good for Republicans, he said, is that there are decent size cities in Texas that continue voting majority Republican, like those in West Texas.

Midland County voted 77.4% for Trump, Ector County voted 73.4% for Trump, Taylor County voted 71.8% for Trump, and Tom Green County voted 71.6% for Trump.

Other than El Paso, Lubbock County had the strongest showing for Vice President Joe Biden in West Texas, and the former Vice President received just 33.1% of the votes. Nokken points out that's the strongest showing for a Democratic candidate for president in decades, but it's still not that close.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton received 28.3% of the votes in Lubbock County. In 2008, President Barack Obama's first run, he received 31.3% of the votes in the county.

Votes are still slowly coming in, but as of Friday afternoon, Texas' five most populated counties voted for Biden by a margin of 912,521 votes.

With Tarrant County County leaning for Biden by last count Friday afternoon, it appears the former Vice President won 22 of Texas' 254 counties — these counties are a mixture of the most populated counties in the state, and the counties along the border with large Hispanic populations.

Trump won the entire state of Texas by about 650,000 votes, meaning rural and suburban areas kept Texas red by voting Republican in significant margins.

"I feel like a lot of people in Lubbock and the surrounding area are starting to finally get the idea that this is the area for statewide candidates — we're part of the reason why we keep Republican national candidates, like our Senators," said Cole Shooter, chairman of the Lubbock County Republican Party. "We're electing Republicans in the state, and those votes aren't necessarily coming out of Houston or Austin. They're coming from the South Plains, the Panhandle, the Permian Basin and East Texas.

"That's one of the things I always try to stress to our national officeholders," Shooter continued. "Yes, there is life that's west of I-35, and you need to remember to pay attention to us, because we're the ones delivering candidates to D.C."

Shooter said he figured there'd be a sizable turnout for President Trump after seeing the vehicle parade rallies. Shooter said those weren't organized by the party — those were grassroots events that turned out thousands of people.

"I expected a strong showing because there was so much coverage leading up to this election," Shooter said. "I mean, it was everywhere you looked. So with tensions riding so high, I'm not surprised that people turned out like they did to go vote the President."

Story lines from Texas' 2020 Elections were also how suburban counties favored Republicans, and how counties in the Rio Grande Valley voted Democratic by fewer margins.

Texas' electoral votes may not have been enough for President Trump to win reelection, but the Republican turnout kept U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in office, kept Republicans in charge of the Texas House and kept Democrats from picking up seats in the U.S. House.

Nokken said this was his biggest takeaway from the elections — how well down-ballot Republicans did across the state.

U.S. Rep. Jodey Arrington was re-elected with 74.83% of the votes. In Lubbock County, the largest county in the district, unofficial final results show Arrington received 68.45%.

There was discussion leading up to the election about how close Lubbock's HD 84 would be, because in 2018, Rep. John Frullo won with 60% of the vote. Frullo's election margin grew this year when he was re-elected with 61% of the vote.

In HD 83, State Rep. Dustin Burrows won with 79% of the vote. In Lubbock County, Burrows received 77% of the vote.

This election broke all of Lubbock's previous turnout records, so even though it's true that Trump received more votes than any presidential candidate since at least 2000, it's also true that Biden received more votes than any Democratic candidate since at least 2000.

The 39,757 votes for Biden broke the previous record for a Democratic presidential candidate by nearly 10,000 votes. The previous record was in 2004.

Percentage wise, the 65.36% votes for Trump is the lowest percentage a Republican presidential candidate has received in the past two decades. Trump received 66.31% of the votes in Lubbock County in his first election.

In 2004, 75.22% of Lubbock County's votes for President went to the Republican.

Lubbock isn't growing as fast as the major cities in Texas, but it's still a growing city. Nokken expects Lubbock to continue moving more Democratic as the number of voters rises. But — and Shooter pointed this out as well — many of Lubbock's new voters may be coming from nearby counties, which are more Republican than Lubbock is.

Nokken says Texas is still a sea of red with blue dots. The 2020 Elections showed that's not changing any time soon.

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