Is HD 84 becoming competitive in 2020?

Lubbock and the rest of the South Plains, as well as the nearby Panhandle, are strong Republican areas — they have been since the 1980’s.

Frullo

Gibson

But if there’s one district for state or federal office in the area that’s shaded a lighter red, it’s Lubbock’s State House District 84. The district is best described as central Lubbock. Apart from several carve outs, mainly Tech Terrace on south, Texas House District 84 is made up of residents around and inside Loop 289.

As suburban growth has continued expanding to the south and west, central Lubbock and HD 84 has become more and more of an urban district. As such, the most urban district in the South Plains has grown more and more competitive in terms of political races.

The race between longtime incumbent Republican State Rep. John Frullo and Democrat John Gibson on the upcoming ballot isn’t on “races to watch” lists being compiled across the state. And if it were, make no mistake it would still be a “likely Republican” district.

If the recent trend continues, Gibson would receive more than 40% of the votes in the upcoming election. Compare that to less than a decade ago - after the last round of redistricting changed the boundaries in 2011 - when the Democratic challenger was receiving less than 20% of the votes.

In 2012, Frullo was reelected with 82.6% of the votes. His Democratic challenger received 17.4% of the vote in the 2012 election. The margin slimmed in 2014 when Frullo received 72.7% of the votes to his challenger’s 27.3%.

Frullo didn’t draw an opponent in 2016, but in 2018 the margin slimmed even more when Frullo won with 60% of the votes compared to the Democrat’s 40%.

In 2018, Frullo was reelected with 5,600 fewer votes than he received in 2012. His challenger in 2018 received 11,238 more votes than his challenger in 2012.

Also in 2018, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Beto O’Rourke received 43% of the votes in Lubbock’s HD 84 district in the race that U.S. Ted Cruz won.

Gibson said inner cities all over the country tend to favor Democrats. He said just a few blue neighborhoods used to be in Lubbock, but now Democrats are across the city. Gibson compared it to the growing Democratic populations in the state’s larger cities.

“We have a large concentration of wealth that has moved out to far southwest Lubbock, to those neighborhoods out there, and they’ve sort of left everybody else behind. What’s happening is the people that are getting left behind are Democrats,” Gibson said this week. “We’re reaching out to those voters.”

Representative Frullo, who was first elected in 2010, doesn’t see it this way.

He said Lubbock has always been an urban district — he described Lubbock as an urban district with rural values.

He said residents in Lubbock, just like the majority of West Texans, want lower taxes, smaller government, responsible regulations and fair judges.

Gibson says he’s been campaigning as much as he can during this pandemic, and he anticipates it will be a tight race if people, specifically younger voters, turnout to vote.

Gibson said HD 84 is more diverse and there’s greater income disparity than in neighboring districts. Gibson said voters are tired of the same representation.

Frullo thinks differently, saying he has a track record people can trust, he knows how Austin works, which is good for the district, and he says people in Lubbock still want limited government, which Frullo says he’s given them.

“People know what to expect from me,” Frullo said. “I’ve been representing this district now since 2011 and I’ve got a track record. If you’re a teacher, you’ve liked what I’ve done. If you’re a retired teacher or in law enforcement you’ve liked what I’ve done, you can look at the NRA and the A-plus rating there. People just know what to expect.”

On the campaign trail, Gibson says criminal justice reform is the issue voters want to talk about. Gibson, a practicing lawyer in Lubbock, is campaigning to end no-knock warrants, limiting the arrests of very minor offenses and addressing racial problems in the criminal justice system.

“In terms of what I’m hearing from people, it’s the common sense things,” Gibson said. “It’s the things we send our legislators down to Austin to get fixed, and that is reforming some of the laws so that when police are interacting with people, it doesn’t end up being any worse than it should be.”

Gibson is also campaigning on expanding Medicaid, pushing the governor and state legislators to treat smaller cities and towns the same as larger cities when it comes to federal aid for COVID-19 relief, and applying a small amount of the state budget to address homelessness in Lubbock and across the state.

Frullo says he’s running for more responsible government. He discussed his work to combat human trafficking, help pass Texas Tech’s initiatives, support local control, and help people navigate through red tape. Frullo said his favorite work is helping individuals who call or come by his office.

Frullo described helping a citizen get unemployment benefits recently, and her daughter called from out of the state to thank him.

“I look for the common-sense way of doing things,” Frullo said. "And people know if I say something, they can count on me.“

One political pollster in Lubbock said he expects the race for HD 84 to be closer, but he says it’s a stretch to call it a competitive race.

A map of Texas House District 84. [MAP FROM TEXAS LEGISLATIVE WEBSITE]

But he said the outcome will depend on the turnout, just like any race. If Gibson can flip a few voting precincts, maybe it’ll be competitive.

From the Democrats’ point of view, turnout in North, East and voter precincts around Texas Tech University will be crucial. From the Republicans’ point of view, turnout in the southern neighborhoods will be critical.