What do you have to gain?

Democratic politicians are much better than their republican counterparts at providing a narrative that people can understand. Anyone with a rooting interest for the republican side should be frustrated with how poorly republican politicians have articulated the benefits of their policies. To explore this issue, start with the assumption that incumbent politicians can take credit for good economic times if they can explain to voters why their policies led to the good times or if they can convincingly argue that voters are better off under their watch than when the other party was in power. Given this, republicans should be able to argue that minorities are better off during the current republican reign compared to their plight several years ago.

Currently, the unemployment rate among Blacks is 6% and it is 3.3% among Whites. Republican politicians point out that the Black unemployment rate was 16% in 2010 during the Great Recession and it is now only 6%. Their critics counter with the following argument: In 2010, the Black unemployment rate was almost twice as high as the White unemployment rate (86% higher). In 2018, the Black unemployment rate is still about twice as high as the White unemployment rate (81.8%). These critics argue that the Blacks are not making any gains since their unemployment rate always seems to remain twice as high as the White unemployment rate.

This argument completely misses the most important dynamic in these numbers. Just because the Black unemployment rate stays about twice as high as the White rate, does not mean that there is not a differential impact when unemployment rates change. It is more instructive to compare the change in unemployment rates over time. Between 2010 and 2018, the White unemployment rate dropped from 8.6% to 3.3% -- which is a decline of 5.3 percentage points. During the same time, the Black unemployment rate dropped from 16% to 6% -- which is a decline of 10 percentage points. The percentage point decline in the unemployment rate is about twice as high among Blanks as it is for Whites.

Viewed across time, it becomes clear that our current good economic times have disproportionately helped Blacks. As my numbers illustrate, when the unemployment rate drops by one percentage point for Whites, it will probably also drop by two percentage points for Blacks. Because the Black unemployment rate has about twice the range that the White rate does, good economic times reduce the Black unemployment rate by much more than these good times reduce the White unemployment rate.

Republicans should be making the case to the African American community that good economic conditions have a bigger impact on their unemployment rates than they do on the unemployment rates for Whites. Compared to Whites, the job prospects for Blacks vary much more with economic conditions. Given this, the republican politicians should try to take credit for the low unemployment rates, which help Blacks even more than they help Whites. If they can explain the unemployment numbers better, republican politicians will be much more effective in gaining the support of African American voters.