Hidalgo, Mealer in dead heat, UH poll shows

A new poll of Harris County voters shows that Alexandra del Moral Mealer and Lina Hidalgo are neck and neck in the race for county judge as early voting begins Monday.

Mealer, a Republican, held a slight lead over the Democratic incumbent Hidalgo, winning 47 percent of likely voters compared to Hidalgo’s 45 percent, according to the new poll from the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston.

The margin of error in the poll, however, is 3.9 percent, and 8 percent of likely voters were still undecided. That suggests that “the county judge race in Harris County is a statistical dead heat, with del Moral Mealer and Hidalgo effectively tied in regard to the vote intention of Harris County likely voters,” the poll said.

The Hobby School conducted the poll by texting likely Harris County voters and directing them to an online survey, which 625 people filled out.

Poll results show that the county judge contest is significantly closer than the gubernatorial race in Harris County, with Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke holding an 8-percent lead over Republican Greg Abbott.

The close county judge race, compared with the race for governor, may suggest that Mealer’s “tough on crime” campaign theme is resonating with voters. Forty percent of voters said crime/public safety was the most important issue in their decision, compared to 13 percent who listed abortion and 11 percent who listed voting rights.

Forty-six percent of voters said Mealer would do better than Hidalgo on the issue, while 31 percent said they placed their trust in Hidalgo.

Mealer has made crime the central focus of her campaign, promising to add 1,000 new law enforcement officers if Republicans win a majority in November, though she has not offered a specific plan for how to pay for those officers. She has blamed Hidalgo for rising murder rates at the beginning of the pandemic, even as other major cities and counties saw sharper increases.

Hidalgo has countered Meal-er’s claims by citing a decline in violent crime since the beginning of 2022, and pointed to Harris County’s more than 400 unfilled law enforcement positions as evidence that the new positions would never be filled. She has taken a more holistic approach to county leadership, unusual for a position that traditionally focuses on infrastructure and criminal justice, by pushing for county involvement in early childhood development, immigration, environmental control.

Mealer held a 19-percent lead over Hidalgo among white voters, 56 percent of whom said they plan on voting for Mealer. The race is neck and neck among Latino voters, who favor Mealer over Hidalgo 47 percent to 44 percent, within the poll’s margin of error. Black voters overwhelmingly support Hidalgo, the poll said, by a rate of 73 percent to 17 percent.

The Hobby School also polled 350 likely voters in Precinct 4 for their opinions on the commissioner race between Jack Cagle and his Democratic challenger, Lesley Briones. Cagle, the Republican incumbent, leads Briones 40 percent to 35 percent, but 25 percent of likely voters remain undecided, the poll shows.

The poll also indicated that the county’s $1.2 billion bond proposals, supported by county Democrats and opposed by Republicans, could pass a referendum in the November election. The most popular proposal was the most expensive — a $900 million bond for road improvements, including drainage projects. It enjoyed support from 63 percent of likely voters, according to the poll.

A $200 million bond for parks had 52 percent support, and $100 million for law enforcement facilities and equipment was supported by 38 percent, with 31 percent of likely voters opposed and another 31 percent undecided.